DROUGHT PREDICTION
MODEL TO BE EVOLVED
MODEL
PREDICTION FOR JULY RAINFALL
A drought prediction
model is to be evolved in the back-drop of the first All-India
drought year (2002) after a continuous spell of 14 good monsoons
since 1987. The seasonal rainfall (June-September) this year for
the country as a whole was 19 percent below normal. 29 percent
area of the country experienced drought conditions, 19 percent
moderate and 10 percent severe. July had the worst rainfall deficiency
of 49 percent. This was stated by the Minister for Human Resource
Development and Science and Technology Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi,
here today while addressing the Parliamentary Consultative Committee
meeting of the Ministry of Science and Technology. The Minister
said that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will also
try to develop a model for prediction of July rainfall, which
has emerged as the most critical factor for agriculture.
Calling for efficient
and more accurate monsoon prediction, Dr. Joshi urged the IMD
to see if there are any shortcomings in our model and whether
it needs any change. He said Indian economy is still predominantly
agrarian and needs good monsoon. The behaviour of the 2002 South-West
Monsoon was very intriguing and could not be captured by any of
the long-range prediction models in May. Even other models failed
to detect any signal that such a large-scale monsoon anomaly was
about to occur. However, this monsoon unlike the previous years,
strangely recovered in August to save the situation from worsening.
Despite this, Dr. Joshi said that the Ministry of Agriculture
has appreciated the IMD’s contribution, especially of the National
Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting which provided invaluable
inputs to the Crop-Weather Watch Group (CWWG).
Elaborating on the
practical difficulties in monsoon prediction, especially for a
country like India, Dr. Joshi said that a brain-storming session
will be held next month to consider such phenomenon. The Centre
for Medium-range Forecasting has been asked to make special model
runs with different initial conditions. This will lead to the
formulation of a national view on the important issue of monsoon
forecasting and provide guidelines for the next year’s prediction
process. The session will take into account the wealth of meteorological
and oceanographic data procured during the current monsoon under
the unique experiment called the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment
(ARMEX). After the session, the 16 parameter model will be re-evaluated
and some parameters replaced or removed, basing on its outcome.
Terming the climate
change as a global phenomena, Dr. Joshi said, the infrastructure
of the IMD will be strengthened further and prediction capabilities
upgraded with more scientific inputs. The IMD has been effectively
forecasting tropical storms, which helped in taking relief measures
in time. 15 percent of global storms originate from Bay of Bengal.
The recently launched METSAT will provide greater operational
flexibility, including more frequent imaging in events such as
tropical cyclones and rapidly developing convective systems, he
said.
The Director General
of India Meteorological Department Dr. R. R. Kelkar gave a presentation
on "Monsoon-2002 and New Initiatives". He said it is proposed
to change the model next year in view of this year’s experience.
During the discussion,
Members of Parliament wanted efficient and improved monsoon forecasting,
inter-linking of rivers, information on the effects of climate
change and global warming, state-wise long-range forecast if possible,
artificial rainfall and massive aforestation.
The members who took
part in the meeting included Shri V. Radhakrishnan, Dr. R. R.
Pramanik, Shri M.O.H. Farook and Shri Balbir Singh (Lok Sabha)
Shri A. R. Kidwai, Dr. Raja Ramanna, Shri M. Rajasekara Murthy
and Shri Birbhadra Singh (Rajya Sabha).
