BRAINSTORMING SESSION
ON THE CAUSES OF MONSOON FAILURE
A two-day brainstorming
session is being held in Bangalore from tomorrow to discuss the
causes of failure of this year’s monsoon in India. Organised by
the Department of Science and Technology, it will also look into
the possibilities of having a new climate model for long-range
monsoon forecasts.
The Department has
already set up a committee of experts to examine the existing
system of monsoon forecasts and suggest improvements. The India
Meteorological Department has been using a statistical model for
monsoon forecasts for the last 14 years that is based on seasonal
rainfall with antecedent regional and global weather conditions.
The forecast based on this was for the country as a whole and
not for smaller regions. A degree of uncertainty is inherent in
any statistical model and this year it proved to be correct.
The Department is
already coordinating an Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX)
under its Indian Climate Research Programme in two phases. The
first phase (observational) was conducted between June and August
this year while the second phase (warm pool experiment) will begin
from mid-March next year. The objectives of ARMEX include study
of Arabian Sea convection associated with rainfall events on the
west-coast of India as well as study of the evolution, maintenance
and collapse of the Arabian Sea warm pool and pre-onset phases
of the monsoon.
After the completion
of the second phase the results would throw some light on the
behaviour of the Arabian Sea component of the monsoon circulation
especially on the intense precipitation of the events on the west-coast.
The Department has also initiated steps to develop forecast models
for month-wise prediction of monsoon rainfall.
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