A multi-pronged approach
is to be adopted for better prediction of monsoon rainfall. This
strategy was recommended by a brainstorming session on monsoon-2002,
held recently in Bangalore, by the Department of Science and Technology.
The all-India monsoon rainfall this year was deficient by nearly
20 percent. The session was of the unanimous opinion that this
monsoon turned out to be an intriguing one. None of the methods
developed for empirical prediction which have been reasonably
successful over a decade could predict drought this year. The
complex atmospheric / climate models of leading global centres
also did not suggest a drought over India.
The meeting focussed
on July-2002, during which an unprecedented deficit of 49 percent
was observed. The possibilities of modifications in the model
to predict extremes such as July-2002 were discussed. It was decided
to go in for developing better empirical methods and further investigations
with general circulation models, to improve the predictions in
the future.
Before embarking
on the multi-pronged approach the scientists attending the brainstorming
session felt that more observations over the ocean with ships,
buoys and floats will be required. Special observational experiments
such as BOBMEX conducted over Bay of Bengal and ARMEX over the
Arabian Sea will have to be done on a regular basis. Further research
in atmospheric models aimed at developing a unified model which
can generate robust simulations of the monsoon and its variability
is essential, the scientists observed. It was also decided to
work more on ocean models for simulating the conditions over the
Indian Ocean from the enhanced observational network, as part
of the multi-pronged strategy.
