QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT FOR THE FIRST QUARTER (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2003-04
The Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
has released the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), for the first quarter [April-June (Q1)] of 2003-04, both
at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of the estimates
are presented below.
Estimates at constant
(1993-94) prices
Quarterly GDP
at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q1 of 2003-04
is estimated at Rs. 3,28,837 crore, as against Rs. 3,10,966 crore
in Q1 of 2002-03, showing a growth rate of 5.7 per cent over the
corresponding quarter of previous year.
The sectors which
registered significant growth in Q1 of 2003-04 over Q1 of 2002-03
are, ‘manufacturing’ sector at 6.4 per cent, ‘construction’ at
5.7 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at
9.6 per cent, and financing, insurance, real estate and business
services’ at 7.1 per cent. The growth rates of ‘agriculture, forestry
and fishing’ at 1.7 per cent, ‘mining and quarrying’ at 3.0 per
cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 4.8 per cent, and
‘community, social and personal services’ at 4.3 per cent are
estimated to be lower than 5 per cent.
According to
the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and
Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate
of GDP from agriculture in Q1 of 2003-04, the crops, namely, rice,
wheat, coarse cereals and pulses during the Rabi season (which
ends in June, 2003) of Agriculture Year 2002-03 recorded negative
growth rates of 30.9 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 13.2 per cent, and
10.2 per cent, respectively over the corresponding season in the
previous year. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds
declined by 13.7 per cent during the Rabi season of 2002-03. The
crops cotton, and sugarcane have also recorded negative growth
rates of 7.7 per cent, and 7.2 per cent respectively in their
production during the year 2002-03.
According to
the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered
growth rates of 5.3 per cent, 5.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively
during Q1 of 2003-04, as compared to the growth rates of 6.8 per
cent, 4.1 per cent and 3.7 per cent in these sectors during Q1
of 2002-03. The key indicators of construction sector, namely,
cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 4.9 per cent
and 7.5 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2003-04.
Among the services
sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne
kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of
6.5 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively during Q1 of 2003-04.
The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles,
cargo handled at major ports, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits
and revenue expenditure of central government, respectively have
shown growth rates of 11.4 per cent, 5.6 per cent, 12.2 per cent,
12.9 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively, during Q1 of 2003-04,
over Q1 of 2002-03.
Estimates at current
prices
GDP at factor
cost at current prices in Q1 of 2003-04, is estimated at Rs. 5,75,220
crore, as against Rs.5,20,394 crore in Q1, 2002-03, showing a
rise of 10.5 per cent.
The wholesale
price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, fish,
minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities,
has risen by 2.3 per cent, (-) 0.3 per cent, 1.1 per cent, 5.4
per cent, 6.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively during Q1
of 2003-04, over Q1 of 2002-03. The consumer price index for industrial
workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 4.7 per cent during Q1 of
2003-04 over Q1 of 2002-03.
Estimates of
GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity
for Q1 of 2003-04 and the corresponding period in 2002-03 at constant
(1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 and 2.
The next release
of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter July-September, 2003
(Q2 of 2003-04) will be on 31 December, 2003.
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF
GDP FOR Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2003-04
(at 1993-94 prices)
|
Industry
|
APRIL-JUNE (Q1)
|
|
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic
Product
for Q1 of
|
Percentage change
Over previous
year Q1
|
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
2003-04
|
2002-03
|
2003-04
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry and
fishing
|
70554
|
72447
|
73705
|
2.7
|
1.7
|
|
2. mining and quarrying
|
6451
|
6945
|
7156
|
7.7
|
3.0
|
|
3. manufacturing
|
51335
|
53300
|
56688
|
3.8
|
6.4
|
|
4. electricity, gas and water
supply
|
7590
|
7924
|
8303
|
4.4
|
4.8
|
|
5. construction
|
15898
|
16892
|
17850
|
6.2
|
5.7
|
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
and communication
|
69466
|
74280
|
81437
|
6.9
|
9.6
|
|
7. financing, ins., real est.
and bus. services
|
37896
|
40430
|
43291
|
6.7
|
7.1
|
|
8. community, social and personal
services
|
36247
|
38748
|
40408
|
6.9
|
4.3
|
|
GDP at factor cost
|
295438
|
310966
|
328837
|
5.3
|
5.7
|
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY
ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR Q1 (APRIL-JUNE) OF 2003-04
(at current prices)
|
Industry
|
APRIL-JUNE (Q1)
|
|
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic
Product
for Q1 of
|
Percentage change
Over previous
year Q1
|
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
2003-04
|
2002-03
|
2003-04
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry and
fishing
|
121064
|
127283
|
132241
|
5.1
|
3.9
|
|
2. mining and quarrying
|
10401
|
11268
|
11736
|
8.3
|
4.2
|
|
3. manufacturing
|
76991
|
80805
|
90564
|
5.0
|
12.1
|
|
4. electricity, gas and water
supply
|
11585
|
13069
|
14603
|
12.8
|
11.7
|
|
5. construction
|
30451
|
32930
|
36945
|
8.1
|
12.2
|
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
and communication
|
106967
|
115392
|
132866
|
7.9
|
15.1
|
|
7. financing, ins., real est.
and bus. services
|
63946
|
69431
|
78923
|
8.6
|
13.7
|
|
8. community, social and personal
services
|
63885
|
70216
|
77342
|
9.9
|
10.1
|
|
GDP at factor cost
|
485290
|
520394
|
575220
|
7.2
|
10.5
|
