QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER
(OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2002-03
The Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
has released the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) for the third quarter [Oct-Dec (Q3)] of 2002-03, both at
constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of the estimates
are presented below.
Estimates
at constant (1993-94) prices
Quarterly GDP
at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q3 of 2002-03
is estimated at Rs. 3,52,637 crore, as against Rs. 3,43,737 crore
in Q3 of 2001-02, showing a growth rate of 2.6 per cent over the
corresponding quarter of previous year.
The sectors which
registered significant growth in Q3 of 2002-03 over Q3 of 2001-02
are, ‘manufacturing’ at 6.3 per cent, ‘electricity, gas &
water supply’ at 5.9 per cent, ‘construction’ at 7.0 per cent,
‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 7.5 per cent,
‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 8.1
per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 5.5
per cent. The growth rate in ‘mining and quarrying’ sector has
been estimated at 4.6 per cent. The GDP of ‘agriculture, forestry
& fishing’ sector has, however, declined by 7.9 per cent in
Q3 of 2002-03 on account of the prevailing drought conditions.
According to
the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture &
Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimates
of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2002-03, the production of rice,
coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds has declined by 15.5 per cent,
29.9 per cent, 18.1 per cent and 34.4 per cent, respectively during
the kharif season of 2002-03. Production of cotton and sugarcane
is also expected to decline by 11.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent,
respectively during 2002-03 over the estimates of the previous
year.
According to
the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), the indices of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered
growth rates of 4.4 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively
during Q3 of 2002-03, as compared to the growth rates of 3.0 per
cent, 2.9 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in these sectors
in Q3 of 2001-02. The key indicators of construction sector, namely,
cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 9.6 per cent
and 7.0 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2002-03, as against
the growth rates of 7.9 per cent and 5.7 per cent, respectively
in the corresponding period of previous year.
Among the services
sectors, the performance indicators of Railways, namely, net tonne
kilometers and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of
7.9 per cent and (-)1.2 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2002-03,
as against the growth rates of 10.5 per cent and 0.5 per cent,
respectively in Q3 of 2001-02. The other key indicators, namely,
production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports,
number of telephones installed, aggregate bank deposits, bank
credits and expenditure of central government, respectively have
shown growth rates of 22.6 per cent, 9.4 per cent, 25.1 per cent,
17.6 per cent, 23.1 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively, during
Q3 of 2002-03 over Q3 of 2001-02.
GDP at factor cost
at current prices in Q3 of 2002-03, is estimated at Rs. 6,01,909
crore, as against Rs. 5,74,520 crore in Q3, 2001-02, showing a
rise of 4.8 per cent.
The wholesale
price index (WPI) in respect of the groups, food articles, fish,
minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities,
has risen by 1.0 per cent, 9.5 per cent, (-) 1.6 per cent, 2.9
per cent, 3.4 per cent, and 3.3 per cent, respectively during
Q3 of 2002-03, over Q3 of 2001-02. The consumer price index for
industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 3.6 per cent during
Q3 of 2002-03 over Q3 of 2001-02.
Estimates of
GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity
for Q3 of 2002-03 and the corresponding period in 2001-02 at constant
(1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 and 2.
The
next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter January-March,
2003 (Q4 of 2002-03) will be on 30.06.2003.
|
STATEMENT
1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF
2002-03
(at
1993-94 prices) |
|
|
GDP
AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore) |
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR |
|
Item |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
|
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
|
1. agriculture, forestry &
fishing |
68754 |
52144 |
92881 |
70555 |
55056 |
98353 |
73677 |
55060 |
90557 |
2.6 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
4.4 |
0.0 |
-7.9 |
|
2. mining & quarrying |
6615 |
6616 |
7127 |
6451 |
6604 |
7383 |
6792 |
6940 |
7721 |
-2.5 |
-0.2 |
3.6 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
|
3. manufacturing |
49877 |
50179 |
51769 |
51335 |
51739 |
53549 |
53265 |
55065 |
56902 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
|
4. electricity, gas &
water supply |
7332 |
7361 |
7567 |
7590 |
7732 |
7825 |
7991 |
8109 |
8285 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
|
5. construction |
15851 |
15196 |
15675 |
15899 |
15394 |
16544 |
16905 |
16507 |
17703 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
7.2 |
7.0 |
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
& commn. |
64482 |
63363 |
71787 |
69466 |
69062 |
77812 |
74618 |
74617 |
83658 |
7.7 |
9.0 |
8.4 |
7.4 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
|
7. financing, ins., real est.
& bus. servs. |
36281 |
36461 |
38001 |
37896 |
38277 |
39834 |
41567 |
41677 |
43057 |
4.5 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
9.7 |
8.9 |
8.1 |
|
8. community, social &
personal servs. |
33927 |
38521 |
38488 |
36247 |
39710 |
42436 |
38308 |
41993 |
44754 |
6.8 |
3.1 |
10.3 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
|
GDP at factor
cost |
283119 |
269840 |
323296 |
295439 |
283573 |
343737 |
313123 |
299969 |
352637 |
4.4 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
2.6 |
|
STATEMENT
2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR (Q3) OCTOBER-DECEMBER
OF 2002-03
(at
current prices) |
|
|
GDP
AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore) |
PERCENTAGE
CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR |
|
Item |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
2001-02 |
2002-03 |
|
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
|
1. agriculture, forestry
& fishing |
116333 |
87326 |
155271 |
121064 |
95226 |
171713 |
129186 |
97909 |
160960 |
4.1 |
9.0 |
10.6 |
6.7 |
2.8 |
-6.3 |
|
2. mining & quarrying |
10049 |
10911 |
11753 |
10401 |
10700 |
12246 |
11007 |
11381 |
12659 |
3.5 |
-1.9 |
4.2 |
5.8 |
6.4 |
3.4 |
|
3. manufacturing |
71572 |
72919 |
76369 |
76991 |
77867 |
80444 |
80791 |
84850 |
87656 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
|
4. electricity, gas &
water supply |
10959 |
11256 |
11952 |
11585 |
12163 |
13039 |
13173 |
13884 |
14368 |
5.7 |
8.1 |
9.1 |
13.7 |
14.2 |
10.2 |
|
5. construction |
28719 |
27835 |
29547 |
30451 |
29698 |
32056 |
32968 |
32871 |
35296 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
10.7 |
10.1 |
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
& commn. |
95787 |
94767 |
110464 |
106968 |
106683 |
120742 |
116511 |
118223 |
132291 |
11.7 |
12.6 |
9.3 |
8.9 |
10.8 |
9.6 |
|
7. financing, ins., real
est. & bus. servs. |
56171 |
57053 |
61055 |
63946 |
65019 |
67796 |
71341 |
73011 |
75396 |
13.8 |
14.0 |
11.0 |
11.6 |
12.3 |
11.2 |
|
8. community, social &
personal servs. |
57059 |
65484 |
66777 |
63885 |
71065 |
76485 |
69413 |
77827 |
83283 |
12.0 |
8.5 |
14.5 |
8.7 |
9.5 |
8.9 |
|
GDP at factor
cost |
446650 |
427551 |
523189 |
485291 |
468421 |
574520 |
524391 |
509956 |
601909 |
8.7 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
8.1 |
8.9 |
4.8 |
