7th February, 2003
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation  


ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2002-03

The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (1993-94) and current prices, for the financial year 2002-03.

These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far. The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

Estimates at Constant (1993-94) Prices

Gross Domestic Product

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices in the year 2002-03 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 13,20,733 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2001-02 of Rs. 12,65,429 crore, released on 31st January 2003. The growth in GDP during 2002-03 is estimated at 4.4 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 5.6 per cent during 2001-02.

The growth rate of 4.4 per cent in GDP during 2002-03 has mainly been due to the growth rates of over 5 per cent in the sectors of ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas and water supply', ‘construction’, 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community, social and personal services'.

Agriculture

The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a decline of 3.1 per cent during 2002-03, mainly due to the prevailing drought conditions.

Industry

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 5.7 per cent, 5.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2002-03, as compared to the growth rates of 0.7 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 2.6 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2001-02. Based on the past trends, the GDP for mining, manufacturing and electricity during 2002-03 is expected to show growth rates of 4.8 per cent, 6.1 per cent, and 5.2 per cent, respectively. The construction sector is expected to show a growth rate of 7.1 per cent during 2002-03, mainly on account of growth in production of 9.7 per cent in cement and 8.1 per cent in steel during April-December 2002-03, over the corresponding period in 2001-02.

Services

The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2002-03 is placed at 7.8 per cent, mainly on account of a growth of 4.1 per cent in the gross trading index, 5.9 per cent in the combined index of railway net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres, 9.0 per cent in cargo handled at major ports, 28.5 per cent in the production of commercial vehicles, and 25.1 per cent in the outstanding telephone connections, during April-December, 2002-03. The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 6.5 per cent during 2002-03, on account of 17.6 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 23.1 per cent growth in bank credit during December 2001 to December 2002. The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2002-03 is estimated to be 6.4 per cent.

National Income

The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1993-94 prices is likely to be Rs. 11,61,966 crore during 2002-03, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 11,15,157 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 4.2 per cent during 2002-03 in comparison to the growth rate of 6.2 per cent in 2001-02.

Per Capita Income

The per capita income in real terms (at 1993-94 prices) during 2002-03 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 11,014 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2001-02 of Rs. 10,754. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.4 per cent during 2002-03, as against the previous year's estimate of 4.3 per cent.

Estimates at Current Prices

Gross Domestic Product

GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2002-03 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 22,36,128 crore, showing a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2001-02 of Rs. 20,94,013 crore.

National Income

The NNP at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs. 19,79,693 crore during 2002-03, as compared to Rs. 18,64,292 crore during 2001-02, showing a rise of 6.2 per cent.

Per Capita Income

The per capita income at current prices during 2002-03 is estimated to be Rs. 18,765 as compared to Rs. 17,978 during 2001-02, showing a rise of 4.4 per cent.

Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity for the years 2001-02 and 2002-03 at constant (1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

STATEMENT 1: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2002-03

(At 1993-94 prices)

Item

2000-01

2001-02

(Quick Estimate)

2002-03 (Advance Estimate)

  1. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
      
  1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
     
  1. Gross national product (GNP) at

    2. factor cost

1186246

1257043

(6.0)

1309917

(4.2)

  • Net national product (NNP) at

    • factor cost

    1050177

    1115157

    (6.2)

    1161966

    (4.2)

  • DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. crore)
    		•      
    1. Gross domestic product (GDP) at

      2. factor cost

    1198685

    1265429

    (5.6)

    1320733

    (4.4)

  • Net domestic product (NDP) at

    • factor cost

    1062616

    1123543

    (5.7)

    1172781

    (4.4)

    1. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
    		     

    Population (million)

    1019

    1037

    (1.8)

    1055

    (1.7)

    Per capita NNP at factor cost (Rs.)

    10306

    10754

    (4.3)

    11014

    (2.4)

    Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

     

    STATEMENT 2: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

    (At 1993-94 prices) Rs. crore

    Industry

    2000-01

    2001-02

    (Quick Estimate)

    2002-03 (Advance Estimate)

    Percentage change over previous year

    2001-02 2002-03

    1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

    285877

    302054

    292625

    5.7

    -3.1

    2. mining & quarrying

    27929

    28218

    29570

    1.0

    4.8

    3. manufacturing

    206061

    213065

    226019

    3.4

    6.1

    4. electricity, gas & water supply

    29807

    31076

    32677

    4.3

    5.2

    5. construction

    62821

    65150

    69756

    3.7

    7.1

    6. trade, hotels, transport and

    communication

    273380

    297213

    320333

    8.7

    7.8

    7. financing, insurance, real estate

    & business services

    150910

    157701

    167894

    4.5

    6.5

    8. community, social & personal

    services

    161900

    170952

    181859

    5.6

    6.4

    GDP at factor cost

    1198685

    1265429

    1320733

    5.6

    4.4

    STATEMENT 3: Advance Estimates of National Income for the year 2002-03

    (At current prices)

    Item

    2000-01

    2001-02

    (Quick Estimate)

    2002-03 (Advance Estimate)

    1. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
    		      

    1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. crore)

    		     

    1.1 Gross national product (GNP) at

    factor cost

    1900310

    2081350

    (9.5)

    2217816

    (6.6)

    1.2 Net national product (NNP) at

    factor cost

    1702454

    1864292

    (9.5)

    1979693

    (6.2)

    2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. crore)

    		     

    2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at

    factor cost

    1917724

    2094013

    (9.2)

    2236128

    (6.8)

    2.2 Net domestic product (NDP) at

    factor cost

    1719868

    1876955

    (9.1)

    1998005

    (6.4)

    B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL

    		     

    Population (million)

     

    1019

    (1.8)

    1037

    (1.8)

    1055

    (1.7)

    Per capita NNP at factor cost (Rs.)

    16707

    17978

    (7.6)

    18765

    (4.4)

    Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

     

    STATEMENT 4: Advance Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

    (At current prices) Rs. crore

    Industry

    2000-01

    2001-02

    (Quick Estimate)

    2002-03 (Advance Estimate)

    Percentage change over previous year

    2001-02 2002-03

    1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

    478468

    522583

    517636

    9.2

    -0.9

    2. mining & quarrying

    45376

    46256

    48491

    1.9

    4.8

    3. manufacturing

    301432

    319932

    346572

    6.1

    8.3

    4. electricity, gas & water supply

    46584

    49999

    56094

    7.3

    12.2

    5. construction

    116557

    125551

    138131

    7.7

    10.0

    6. trade, hotels, transport and

    communication

    412949

    456918

    500977

    10.6

    9.6

    7. financing, insurance, real estate

    & business services

    238865

    267119

    292171

    11.8

    9.4

    8. community, social & personal

    services

    277493

    305655

    336056

    10.1

    9.9

    GDP at factor cost

    1917724

    2094013

    2236128

    9.2

    6.8

     
     
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