CLIMATE CHANGE
: CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
The 8th Conference of Parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 8)
will be held in New Delhi from 23rd of this month.
Environment Ministers, delegates, official negotiators from 186
countries besides representatives of United Nations Institutions,
specialist international bodies like International Atomic Energy
Agency, media etc. will be attending the Conference. With an estimated
participation of about 5000 delegates, COP 8 will be the largest
ever International Conference to be held in India. This Conference
will discuss various aspects of climate change which has come
to be the focus of global attention.
Climate change refers to variations in climatic
patterns over a comparable period of time. While there is always
a degree of natural variations in climate, human activity induced
climate change has come to be of serious global concern. Enhanced
global warming is central to climate change. Global warming is
caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) like carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluro
carbons (HFC), perflurocarbons (PMC) and sulphur hexafloride.
Gases like CO2 exist in the atmosphere and are responsible
for keeping the earth planet warmer by 300C than it
would otherwise be, which is essential for life systems. This
is called natural greenhouse effect. Enhanced greenhouse effect
that adds to global warming resulting in climatic change is caused
by increased emission of greenhouse gases from various human activities
like industry, agriculture, transportation, burning of coal and
wood, using of fire extinguishers, electric insulators, etc. The
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere prevent infrared
radiation from the earth escaping into the space resulting in
increase in earth temperatures which is called the global warming.
The first World Climate Conference in 1979
recognized climate change as a serious problem. Following the
global concern about climate change, the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)
established an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
in 1988 to examine various aspects of this problem. The first
IPCC Assessment Report in 1990 confirmed the scientific evidence
for climate change. IPCC, a body of about 2000 scientists in its
second Assessment Report in 1995 concluded that "The balance
of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence
on global climate". Going further, the IPCC in its 3rd
Assessment Report confirmed that there was a stronger than ever
before evidence for humankind’s influence on climate change and
also presented the most detailed picture of how global warming
will affect various regions. The Report also confirmed that many
cost-effective solutions to the problem of increasing greenhouse
gas emissions are available.
The IPCC Report stated that the earth temperatures
increased by 0.60 centigrade in the 20th
Century besides projecting an increase of 1.40C to
5.80C by the year 2100. The mean sea level increased
by 10 cm to 20 cm during the last century and is likely to further
rise by about 80 cm by 2100. Climate change will have serious
impacts on agriculture and economy and human health. Temperature
increase by more than 2.50C will reduce global food
production resulting in significant increase in food prices. Some
analysts estimated that global warming by 2.50C could
reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USA by 0.5%, European Union
by 2.8%, Africa by 3.9% and India by 4.9%. Developing countries
are the most vulnerable to climate change on account of their
weaker economies and institutions. In addition, people who live
in arid and semi arid lands, low lying coastal areas, flood prone
areas and small islands or at particular risk
Climate change is expected to increase the
frequency and severity of heat waves. More intensive rainfall
events which could also be caused by climate change in some regions
will lead to greater flooding. The intensity of tropical cyclones
is likely to worsen. Climate change will reduce ice cover of the
seas. 14% decrease of ice cover in the Arctic and 25% decline
in the ice cover of Antarctic has already been recorded. While
the mid and high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere receive heavy
rain and snow, tropics and sub-tropics will suffer from decline
in rains. Water availability in the large basins of Africa has
already declined by 40% to 60%. Decline in water supply will place
additional stress on people, agriculture and environment. Already,
1.7 billion people accounting for 1/3 of world population live
in water stressed countries which is expected to rise to 5 billion
by 2025. Climate change will also impact human health in the form
of increased incidence of vector borne diseases like malaria.
Developed countries are primarily responsible
for the historic and current levels of concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. But they are in a position to absorb
the impacts of climate change on account of the strength of their
economies and institutions. Without emissions control policies,
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are expected to increase
from the present 367 particles per million (ppm) to 490- 1260
ppm by 2100. Stabilizing these concentrations at 450 ppm would
require world wide emissions to fall below 1990 levels of emissions.
Climate change is a global concern as the impacts are not specific
to any country or region. In view of the magnitude of the adverse
consequences of climate change, the global community set in motion
the efforts to address the problem of climate change by reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.
UNFCCC
The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992. Its objective
is "Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
(human induced) interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved within a time frame to allow eco-systems to
adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production
is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed
in a sustainable manner". 186 countries including India are
parties to this Convention and are going to meet in New Delhi
from the 23rd of this month on the issue of climate
change.
Under this Convention, 41 industrialized
countries included in Annex I to the Convention and are hence
called as Annex I countries undertook several specific commitments
including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 level
by the year 2000. Annex I countries include most of the OECD countries
and Central and Eastern European countries. The 25 richest countries
are included in Annex II to the Convention and these are required
to fund the agreed full cost incurred by developing countries
to meet their obligations under the Convention. Developing countries
are not required to meet any specific target for reduction of
emission but they only need to prepare national communications
on the status of emissions. Annex II countries shall also under
the Convention provide new and additional financial resources
and facilitate technology transfer, particularly, for developing
country parties to the Convention.
Conference of Parties (COP)
COP comprising of all countries which are
Parties to the Convention on Climate Change is the supreme body
with regard to implementation of the Convention.
COP 1
The First Conference of the Parties was held
in 1995 in Berlin. It agreed that commitments contained in UNFCCC
for developed countries were inadequate and launched the Berlin
mandate talks on additional commitments. It also discussed in
detail institutional and financial mechanisms needed to support
actions under the Convention in the years to come.
COP 2
Held in Geneva in 1996, took stock of the
progress on Berlin mandate and strengthening of the Convention.
It endorsed the second Assessment Report of IPCC which confirmed
the evidence of human interference in global climate. Also considered
the process of reviewing of National Communications on greenhouse
gas emissions.
COP 3
Held in 1997 in Kyoto, adopted the Kyoto
Protocol on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Also confirmed
funding, technology transfer and review of information under Climate
Change Convention.
COP 4
Held in 1998 in Buenos Aires, agreed on a
two year plan of action for completing Kyoto Protocol Rule Book.
The Plan of Action also addressed compliance issues, policies
and matters and Convention related issues such as transfer of
climate friendly technologies to developing countries.
COP 5
Held in Bonn in 1999, set an aggressive time
table for completing work on Kyoto protocol. Decided to improve
the rigor of national communications on greenhouse gas emissions
from developed countries besides strengthening guidelines for
measuring of emission of greenhouse gases.
COP 6
Held in 1999 in The Hague, aimed at a political
agreement on the operational rule book for Kyoto protocol. Made
good progress but could not resolve all substantial issues. Meeting
was suspended and later resumed in Bonn. The Bonn meeting agreed
on the rule book. The political agreement addressed emission trading
system, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), rules for counting
emissions reduction from carbon sinks and the compliance regime.
Also outlined a package of financial and technological support
to help developing countries contribute to global action on climate
change. It also started the process of translating political agreement
into detailed texts. Many of these decisions texts were completed
for adoption at COP-7, which was to finalise the remaining decisions.
COP 7
Held in 2001 in Marrakech, resulted in Marrakech
accord on several issues. In pursuance of the Bonn Political agreement,
COP 7 resulted in decisions relating to financial and institutional
mechanisms including on technology transfer, capacity building,
clean development mechanism etc.
COP 8
To be held in New Delhi from the 23rd
of October, 2002. At a two-day high level consultation meeting
held in New Delhi on September 30 and October 1, 2002 with the
participation of a representative group of 35 countries preparatory
to COP 8, it was agreed that COP 8 shall come out with a Delhi
Declaration incorporating a concrete framework of action. The
proposal made by India in this regard was endorsed by the 35 countries.
COP 8 will take up stock taking of implementation of the Climate
Change Convention besides discussing climate change and sustainable
development.
Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997, the Protocol requires the
Annex 1 countries (rich industrialized countries and the economies
in transition) to collectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions
to 5.2% below the 1990 level. India has recently ratified the
Protocol which is however, yet to come into force. It will come
into force 90 days after it has been ratified by at least 55 parties
to the Convention, including developed countries contributing
55% of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions of Annex 1 countries.
While the first stipulation has been met, the second one is yet
to be met. So far, developed countries accounting for about 37%
of total emissions of Annex 1 countries have ratified the Protocol.
With USA walking out of the Protocol, Russia and Canada are critical
for bringing the Protocol into force.
The Annex 1 countries’ group target of 5.2%
reduction will be achieved through reduction targets of 8% for
Switzerland, most Central and East European States and European
Union, 7% for US, 6% for Canada, Hungary, Japan and Poland. Russia,
New Zealand and Ukraine shall stabilize their emissions while
Norway may increase by 1%, Australia by 8% and Iceland by 10%.
The Protocol also require the developed countries to achieve demonstrable
progress in this regard by 2005. The reduction commitments under
the Protocol are to be met during the first implementation period
of 2008-2012. Discussions for reduction commitments for the post
2012 period shall begin in 2005.
Compared to emission levels projected for
the year 2000, the richest industrialized countries will have
to reduce their collective output substantially. This is because
many of these countries will not be in a position to meet the
reduction commitment of returning to 1990 level by the year 2000,
and their emissions have in fact risen since 1990. While the emissions
of economies in transition (former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe
countries) have declined since 1990, the trend is now reversing.
Therefore, for the developed countries as a whole, the 5.2% Protocol
target represents an actual cut of around 20% when compared to
the projected emissions level for 2010 if no emissions control
measures are adopted.
Under Kyoto Protocol, developing countries
agreed take measures to limit emissions without, however, any
specific targets besides taking measures to promote adaptation
to future climate change impacts. The Protocol also reiterates
the need to provide new and additional financial resources to
meet agreed full costs incurred by developed countries in carrying
out these commitments.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Trends
In case of Australia, emissions when compared
to 1990 level has increased by 14.5% in 1998, though an 8% reduction
is required under Kyoto Protocol. With regard to other major countries,
the position is; Austria 6.4% (as against –13% i.e. reduction
target under Kyoto Protocol), Belgium 6.5% (minus 7.5%), Canada
13.2% (-6%), Denmark 9.5% (-21%), France 0.9% (0%), Italy 4.4%
(-6.5%), Japan 9.7% (-6%), Netherlands 8.4% (-6%), Norway 7.7%
(+ 1%), Russian Federation –35.4% (0%), Sweden 6.4% (-4%), United
Kingdom -8.3% (-12.5%), USA 11.2% (-7%).
Annex 1 countries as a whole have registered
a decline of 6.4% as against the Kyoto Protocol reduction target
of 5.2%. This is primarily because of decline in emissions of
economies in transitions i.e. former Soviet Union and other Communist
countries on account of economic restructuring. However, the richest
industrialized countries registered an increase of an average
6.8% in emission of greenhouse gases which is an issue to be addressed
to.
Per Capita Carbon dioxide Emissions in 1996
USA 19.7 metric tons, Czech Republic 12.3,
Russian Federation 10.7, U.K. 9.5, Japan 9.3, Malaysia 5.8, China
2.7, Brazil 1.7, Nigeria 0.8 and India 1.1 metric tons.
Carbon dioxide accounts for 82% of total
greenhouse emissions from developed countries. Fuel combustion
is the most important source of this gas accounting for 96% of
the emission. Carbon dioxide emission from vehicles and transport
equipment is increasing by a significant 2.5% per year. Developed
countries have the highest per capita ownership of private cars
with about 500 cars per thousand people in North America as against
32 in South America.
Sources of Greenhouse Gases
Carbon dioxide : Burning of fossil
fuels like oil, natural gas and coal is the single largest source
followed by deforestation.
Methane
Methane: Livestock is the main source. Also
comes from decomposition of animal manure, rice cultivation, disposal
and treatment of garbage and human waste. Extracting, processing,
transporting and distributing of fossil fuels, mining and pulverisation
of coal also release methane.
Nitrous Oxide
Supply and use of fossil fuels and fertilizer
use.
Sulphur Hexafloride
This is used as an electric insulator, heat
conductor, freezing agent etc.
HFCs and PFCs
Used as Ozone safe replacements for Ozone
depleting substances.
It is clear from the above that greenhouse
gas emitting activities are essential for global economy and form
a fundamental part of modern life highlighting the issues involved
in addressing the problem of climate change. Earth’s biological
history is punctuated with mass extinction events during which
a large fraction of species were wiped out. There are many possible
reasons for mass extinction, but the records suggest that some
of these events coincided with abrupt changes in climate – similar
in magnitude to the kind of changes now forecast for 21st
century.
Hence, the imperative need to address the
concern of climate change which is already happening. COP 8 in
Delhi, therefore, assumes importance.
