March 28, 2002

‘22’

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT  FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2001-02

    The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the quarterly estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for the third quarter [Oct-Dec (Q3)] of 2001-02, both at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of the estimate are presented below.

Estimate at constant (1993-94) prices

2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q3 of 2001-02 is estimated at Rs. 3,40,759 crore, as against Rs. 3,20,545 crore in Q3 of 2000-01, showing a growth rate of 6.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

3. The sectors which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2001-02 over Q3 of 2000-01 are ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ at 7.1 per cent, ‘construction’ at 5.3 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 6.9 per cent, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.0 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 6.1 per cent. The growth rates in ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’, and ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ sectors have been estimated at 2.8 per cent, 2.8 per cent, and 4.0 per cent, respectively.

4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2001-02, the production of rice during kharif and rabi season of 2001-02 are expected to grow by 7.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding seasons in the previous year. The production of wheat during 2001-02 is also expected to rise by 6.3 per cent over its estimated production during the previous year. The production of coarse cereals and pulses are anticipated to show growth rates of 0.9 per cent (-4.2 per cent during the kharif season and 22.4 per cent during the rabi season), and 23.2 per cent (17.9 per cent during the kharif season and 27.1 per cent during the rabi season), respectively during 2001-02. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is expected to show growth rates of 11.6 per cent during the kharif season, and 19.6 per cent during the rabi season of 2001-02. The crops, cotton and sugarcane are expected to show growth rates of 23.9 per cent and (-) 1.4 per cent, respectively during 2001-02 over the estimates of the previous year.

5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 2.9 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, as compared to the growth rates of 5.5 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 7.6 per cent in these sectors during Q3 of 2000-01. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 9.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, as against the growth rates of 0.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2000-01.

6. Among the services sectors, the combined key indicator of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers has shown a growth rate of 9.0 per cent during Q3 of 2001-02, as against the growth rate of 4.5 per cent in Q3 of 2000-01. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits and expenditure of central government, respectively have shown growth rates of 13.3 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 14.4 per cent, 12.2 per cent and 18.7 per cent, respectively, during Q3 of 2001-02, over Q3 of 2000-01.

Estimate at current prices

7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2001-02, is estimated at Rs. 5,65,192 crore, as against Rs. 5,13,827 crore in Q3, 2000-01, showing a rise of 10.0 per cent.

8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, logs and timber, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 4.7 per cent, 9.6 per cent, 9.0 per cent, 4.8 per cent, 1.0 per cent, 15.2 per cent, and 2.5 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, over Q3 of 2000-01. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 4.8 per cent during Q3 of 2001-02 over Q3 of 2000-01.

9. Estimates of GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity for Q3 of 2001-02 and the corresponding period in 2000-01 at constant (1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 and 2.

(The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2002 (Q4 of 2001-02) will be on 28.06.2002.)

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF 2001-02

(at 1993-94 prices)

GDP AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore)

PERCENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR

Item

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2000-01

2001-02

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

69546

49876

94253

70779

51821

93454

72428

53562

100044

1.8

3.9

-0.8

2.3

3.4

7.1

2. mining & quarrying

6271

6352

6809

6572

6582

7099

6569

6621

7298

4.8

3.6

4.3

0.0

0.6

2.8

3. manufacturing

45979

46683

48119

49706

49989

51542

50857

51154

52985

8.1

7.1

7.1

2.3

2.3

2.8

4. electricity, gas & water supply

6984

7190

7062

7481

7510

7718

7731

7874

8028

7.1

4.5

9.3

3.3

4.8

4.0

5. construction

14084

13833

14634

15837

15216

15681

16238

15833

16520

12.4

10.0

7.2

2.5

4.1

5.3

6. trade, hotels, transport & commn.

58789

58444

66757

63535

62142

69971

66868

66006

74769

8.1

6.3

4.8

5.2

6.2

6.9

7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. servs.

34705

35112

36872

35977

36467

37639

39526

40468

41402

3.7

3.9

2.1

9.9

11.0

10.0

8. community, social & personal servs.

33331

34811

35643

34405

38227

37442

36551

40543

39713

3.2

9.8

5.0

6.2

6.1

6.1

GDP at factor cost

269689

252301

310150

284292

267954

320545

296768

282061

340759

5.4

6.2

3.4

4.4

5.3

6.3

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR (Q3) OCTOBER-DECEMBER OF 2001-02

(at current prices)

GDP AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore)

PERCENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR

Item

1999-2000

2000-01

2001-02

2000-01

2001-02

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q1

Q2

Q3

1. agriculture, forestry & fishing

108363

79895

151148

116796

84630

152338

121634

90672

171175

7.8

5.9

0.8

4.1

7.1

12.4

2. mining & quarrying

10088

10213

9605

9869

10731

11574

10451

11055

12483

-2.2

5.1

20.5

5.9

3.0

7.9

3. manufacturing

63215

64586

67056

71221

72536

75922

75521

76266

78843

12.7

12.3

13.2

6.0

5.1

3.8

4. electricity, gas & water supply

10531

10842

10649

11654

11969

12704

13378

14056

15227

10.7

10.4

19.3

14.8

17.4

19.9

5. construction

24802

24648

26461

28674

27851

29535

30999

30482

31907

15.6

13.0

11.6

8.1

9.4

8.0

6. trade, hotels, transport & commn.

83603

84042

97144

93287

92169

106477

102977

102354

116249

11.6

9.7

9.6

10.4

11.1

9.2

7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. servs.

51591

52808

56230

55516

56843

60268

64660

66636

67890

7.6

7.6

7.2

16.5

17.2

12.6

8. community, social & personal servs.

53927

57189

59586

57922

65035

65009

64194

72349

71417

7.4

13.7

9.1

10.8

11.2

9.9

GDP at factor cost

406121

384223

477879

444938

421763

513827

483812

463870

565192

9.6

9.8

7.5

8.7

10.0

10.0