March 28, 2002
22
QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2001-02
The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the quarterly estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for the third quarter [Oct-Dec (Q3)] of 2001-02, both at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of the estimate are presented below.
Estimate at constant (1993-94) prices
2. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q3 of 2001-02 is estimated at Rs. 3,40,759 crore, as against Rs. 3,20,545 crore in Q3 of 2000-01, showing a growth rate of 6.3 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
3. The sectors which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2001-02 over Q3 of 2000-01 are agriculture, forestry & fishing at 7.1 per cent, construction at 5.3 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 6.9 per cent, financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 10.0 per cent, and community, social and personal services at 6.1 per cent. The growth rates in mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity, gas & water supply sectors have been estimated at 2.8 per cent, 2.8 per cent, and 4.0 per cent, respectively.
4. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2001-02, the production of rice during kharif and rabi season of 2001-02 are expected to grow by 7.3 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding seasons in the previous year. The production of wheat during 2001-02 is also expected to rise by 6.3 per cent over its estimated production during the previous year. The production of coarse cereals and pulses are anticipated to show growth rates of 0.9 per cent (-4.2 per cent during the kharif season and 22.4 per cent during the rabi season), and 23.2 per cent (17.9 per cent during the kharif season and 27.1 per cent during the rabi season), respectively during 2001-02. Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is expected to show growth rates of 11.6 per cent during the kharif season, and 19.6 per cent during the rabi season of 2001-02. The crops, cotton and sugarcane are expected to show growth rates of 23.9 per cent and (-) 1.4 per cent, respectively during 2001-02 over the estimates of the previous year.
5. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 2.9 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, as compared to the growth rates of 5.5 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 7.6 per cent in these sectors during Q3 of 2000-01. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and finished steel registered growth rates of 9.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, as against the growth rates of 0.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2000-01.
6. Among the services sectors, the combined key indicator of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers has shown a growth rate of 9.0 per cent during Q3 of 2001-02, as against the growth rate of 4.5 per cent in Q3 of 2000-01. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits and expenditure of central government, respectively have shown growth rates of 13.3 per cent, 3.9 per cent, 14.4 per cent, 12.2 per cent and 18.7 per cent, respectively, during Q3 of 2001-02, over Q3 of 2000-01.
Estimate at current prices
7. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2001-02, is estimated at Rs. 5,65,192 crore, as against Rs. 5,13,827 crore in Q3, 2000-01, showing a rise of 10.0 per cent.
8. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, logs and timber, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 4.7 per cent, 9.6 per cent, 9.0 per cent, 4.8 per cent, 1.0 per cent, 15.2 per cent, and 2.5 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2001-02, over Q3 of 2000-01. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 4.8 per cent during Q3 of 2001-02 over Q3 of 2000-01.
9. Estimates of GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity for Q3 of 2001-02 and the corresponding period in 2000-01 at constant (1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 and 2.
(The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2002 (Q4 of 2001-02) will be on 28.06.2002.)
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR OCTOBER-DECEMBER (Q3) OF 2001-02 (at 1993-94 prices) |
|||||||||||||||
GDP AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore) |
PERCENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR |
||||||||||||||
Item |
1999-2000 |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
||||||||||
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
|
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing | 69546 |
49876 |
94253 |
70779 |
51821 |
93454 |
72428 |
53562 |
100044 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
-0.8 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
7.1 |
2. mining & quarrying | 6271 |
6352 |
6809 |
6572 |
6582 |
7099 |
6569 |
6621 |
7298 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
4.3 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
2.8 |
3. manufacturing | 45979 |
46683 |
48119 |
49706 |
49989 |
51542 |
50857 |
51154 |
52985 |
8.1 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
4. electricity, gas & water supply | 6984 |
7190 |
7062 |
7481 |
7510 |
7718 |
7731 |
7874 |
8028 |
7.1 |
4.5 |
9.3 |
3.3 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
5. construction | 14084 |
13833 |
14634 |
15837 |
15216 |
15681 |
16238 |
15833 |
16520 |
12.4 |
10.0 |
7.2 |
2.5 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
6. trade, hotels, transport & commn. | 58789 |
58444 |
66757 |
63535 |
62142 |
69971 |
66868 |
66006 |
74769 |
8.1 |
6.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. servs. | 34705 |
35112 |
36872 |
35977 |
36467 |
37639 |
39526 |
40468 |
41402 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
2.1 |
9.9 |
11.0 |
10.0 |
8. community, social & personal servs. | 33331 |
34811 |
35643 |
34405 |
38227 |
37442 |
36551 |
40543 |
39713 |
3.2 |
9.8 |
5.0 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
GDP at factor cost | 269689 |
252301 |
310150 |
284292 |
267954 |
320545 |
296768 |
282061 |
340759 |
5.4 |
6.2 |
3.4 |
4.4 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR (Q3) OCTOBER-DECEMBER OF 2001-02 (at current prices) |
|||||||||||||||
GDP AT FACTOR COST (Rs. in crore) |
PERCENTAGE CHANGE OVER PREVIOUS YEAR |
||||||||||||||
Item |
1999-2000 |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
2000-01 |
2001-02 |
||||||||||
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
|
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing | 108363 |
79895 |
151148 |
116796 |
84630 |
152338 |
121634 |
90672 |
171175 |
7.8 |
5.9 |
0.8 |
4.1 |
7.1 |
12.4 |
2. mining & quarrying | 10088 |
10213 |
9605 |
9869 |
10731 |
11574 |
10451 |
11055 |
12483 |
-2.2 |
5.1 |
20.5 |
5.9 |
3.0 |
7.9 |
3. manufacturing | 63215 |
64586 |
67056 |
71221 |
72536 |
75922 |
75521 |
76266 |
78843 |
12.7 |
12.3 |
13.2 |
6.0 |
5.1 |
3.8 |
4. electricity, gas & water supply | 10531 |
10842 |
10649 |
11654 |
11969 |
12704 |
13378 |
14056 |
15227 |
10.7 |
10.4 |
19.3 |
14.8 |
17.4 |
19.9 |
5. construction | 24802 |
24648 |
26461 |
28674 |
27851 |
29535 |
30999 |
30482 |
31907 |
15.6 |
13.0 |
11.6 |
8.1 |
9.4 |
8.0 |
6. trade, hotels, transport & commn. | 83603 |
84042 |
97144 |
93287 |
92169 |
106477 |
102977 |
102354 |
116249 |
11.6 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
10.4 |
11.1 |
9.2 |
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus. servs. | 51591 |
52808 |
56230 |
55516 |
56843 |
60268 |
64660 |
66636 |
67890 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
7.2 |
16.5 |
17.2 |
12.6 |
8. community, social & personal servs. | 53927 |
57189 |
59586 |
57922 |
65035 |
65009 |
64194 |
72349 |
71417 |
7.4 |
13.7 |
9.1 |
10.8 |
11.2 |
9.9 |
GDP at factor cost | 406121 |
384223 |
477879 |
444938 |
421763 |
513827 |
483812 |
463870 |
565192 |
9.6 |
9.8 |
7.5 |
8.7 |
10.0 |
10.0 |