March 14, 2002

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HIV ESTIMATES FOR THE YEAR 2001

    The number of added HIV infections in India during the year 2001 is estimated to be 110,000 as against 160,000 during 2000, according to the HIV Sentinel Surveillance round-2001. The Survey has put the total number of HIV infections at 3.97 million. The estimated number of adults living with HIV in the country for 1998, 1999 and 2000 were 3.5 million, 3.7 million and 3.8 million respectively.

    Encouraging early signs of sero-stabilization have been observed in high prevalence States. As the coverage of the target population is still less than full and certain sections like migrants and young people need to be adequately addressed, the National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) would strive for further capacity building and resource mobilization towards multi-sectoral response. The target will be to reach the goal of Statewide scaled up programmes for the high prevalence States and to maintain the prevalence rates in the populous northern region at the current level.

    The annual round of HIV Sentinel Survey was conducted in 320 sites in all the States and Union Territories during August-October 2001. The sites included 135 sites in STD clinics, 170 sites in Antenatal clinics, 13 sites for IDUs (Intra-venous Drug Users) and two sites for MSM (man having sex with man). Based on the HIV prevalence rates in various risk groups, the number of HIV infections was estimated at the national level.

    In 1998, 1999 and 2000, certain assumptions were taken into consideration, while making the estimates. These assumptions had evolved on the basis of consultation with a group of experts including eminent Epidemiologists and Bio-statisticians in the country as well as from WHO and UNAIDS. Based on these assumptions and consistent methodology, a similar worksheet was developed using 2001 HIV sentinel data. This worksheet was examined by a small working group of experts and subsequently discussed by the members of the "Task Force on Surveillance" including international experts from WHO and UNAIDS. As per the recommendations of this expert group, updating was made in the assumptions for HIV estimates 2001. The point estimate for the year 2001 comes to 3.31 million HIV infections in adult population (15 - 49 years age group) in the country. With a 20 per cent variability to take care of unaccounted numbers of IDUs, MSM and other age groups, a working estimate of 3.97 million HIV infections was arrived at.