February 5, 2002

        The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the advance estimates of national income at constant (1993-94) and current prices, for the financial year 2001-02.

        2. These advance estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural and industrial production, analysis of budget estimates of government expenditure and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance, available so far. The advance estimates at current prices are derived by estimating the implicit price deflators (IPDs) at sectoral level from the relevant price indices. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

3. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices in the year 2001-02 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 12,58,808 crore, as against the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2000-01 of Rs. 11,93,922 crore, released on 31^st January 2002. The growth in GDP during 2001-02 is estimated at 5.4 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 4.0 per cent during 2000-01.

        4. The growth rate of 5.4 per cent in GDP during 2001-02 has mainly been due to the growth rates of over 5 per cent in sectors, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, 'electricity, gas and water supply', 'trade, hotels, transport and communication', 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', and 'community, social and personal services'.

Agriculture

        5. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), the production of foodgrains is expected to register a growth of 6.8 per cent during 2001-02, over the previous year. Among the commercial crops, oilseeds and cotton are expected to show growth rates of 14.5 per cent and 23.9 per cent, while sugarcane production is expected to decline by 1.4 per cent during the year 2001-02 over their estimated production in the previous year.

Industry

        6. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 1.2 per cent, 2.3 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2001-02, as compared to the growth rates 4.4 per cent, 6.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2000-01. Based on the past trends, the GDP for mining, manufacturing and electricity during 2001-02 is expected to show growth rates of 2.3 per cent, 3.3 per cent, and 3.8 per cent, respectively. The construction sector is expected to show a growth rate of 2.9 per cent during 2001-02, mainly on account of growth in production of 6.4 per cent in cement. However, the growth in steel was (-) 0.3 per cent during April-December 2001-02, over the corresponding period in 2000-01.

Services

        7. The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2001-02 is placed at 6.3 per cent, which is higher than the previous year’s growth rate of 5.3 per cent, mainly on account of a growth of 3.9 per cent in the gross trading index, 6.7 per cent in the combined index of railway net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres, 2.4 per cent in cargo handled at major ports, 4.7 per cent in stock of commercial vehicles, and 20.9 per cent in outstanding telephone connections. The sector, 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services', is expected to show a growth rate of 7.5 per cent during 2001-02, on account of 15.2 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 14.0 per cent growth in bank credit during November 2000 to November 2001. The growth rate of 'community, social and personal services' during 2001-02 is estimated to remain at the previous year’s level.

        8. The net national product (NNP) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 1993-94 prices is likely to be Rs. 11,01,065 crore during 2001-02, as against the previous year's Quick Estimate of Rs. 10,44,915 crore. In terms of growth rates, the national income is expected to rise by 5.4 per cent during 2001-02 in comparison to the growth rate of 3.7 per cent in 2000-01.

        9. The per capita income in real terms (at 1993-94 prices) during 2001-02 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 10,618 as compared to the Quick Estimate for the year 2000-01 of Rs. 10,254. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3.5 per cent during 2001-02, as against the previous year's estimate of 1.9 per cent.

        10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2001-02 is likely to attain a level of Rs. 20,80,255 crore, showing a growth rate of 9.7 per cent over the Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2000-01 of Rs. 18,95,843 crore.

        11. The NNP at factor cost at current prices is anticipated to be Rs. 18,44,729 crore during 2001-02, as compared to Rs. 16,79,982 crore during 2000-01, showing a rise of 9.8 per cent.

        12. The per capita income at current prices during 2001-02 is estimated to be Rs. 17,789, as compared to Rs. 16,487 during 2000-01, showing a rise of 7.9 per cent.

        13. Estimates of gross/net national product, gross/net domestic product and per capita income alongwith GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity for the years 2000-01 and 2001-02 at constant (1993-94) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.