The Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
has released the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) for the second quarter [July-September (Q2)] of 2002-03,
both at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The details of
the estimates are presented below.
Estimates at constant
(1993-94) prices
Quarterly GDP
at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q2 of 2002-03
is estimated at Rs. 2,98,308 crore, as against Rs. 2,82,084 crore
in Q2 of 2001-02, showing a growth rate of 5.8 per cent over the
corresponding quarter of previous year.
3. The sectors
which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2002-03 over Q2 of
2001-02 are ‘mining and quarrying’ sector at 5.1 per cent, ‘manufacturing’
at 6.4 per cent, ‘construction’ at 7.2 per cent, ‘trade, hotels,
transport and communication’ at 8.0 per cent, ‘financing, insurance,
real estate and business services’ at 8.9 per cent, and ‘community,
social and personal services’ at 5.7 per cent. The growth rate
in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ sector has been estimated
at zero per cent and that in ‘electricity, gas and water supply’
sector at 4.9 per cent, during Q2 of 2002-03 over Q2 of 2001-02.
According to
the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture &
Cooperation (DAC) on the likely production of crops during the
Kharif season of 2002-03, which has been used in compiling the
estimates of GDP from agriculture in Q2 of 2002-03, the production
of rice, coarse cereals, and pulses has fallen by 15.8 per cent,
27.8 per cent, and 16.7 per cent, respectively during the Kharif
season of 2002-03 over the corresponding season in the previous
year. Among the commercial crops, production of oilseeds is expected
to decline by 25.1 per cent during the Kharif season of 2002-03.
Production of cotton and sugarcane is also expected to fall by
22.3 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively during 2002-03 over
their estimated production in the previous year.
According to
the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production
(IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing, and electricity, registered
growth rates of 6.2 per cent, 6.8 per cent, and 3.3 per cent,
respectively during Q2 of 2002-03 as compared to the growth rates
of 0.7 per cent, 2.5 per cent, and 4.0 per cent in these sectors
during Q2 of 2001-02. The key indicators of construction sector,
namely, cement and steel registered growth rates of 11.7 per cent
and 8.2 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2002-03 as against
the growth rates of 4.7 per cent and (-) 0.8 per cent, respectively
during Q2 of 2001-02.
Among the services
sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne
kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of
15.5 per cent and (-) 2.4 per cent, respectively during Q2 of
2002-03. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial
vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, aggregate bank deposits,
bank credits and revenue expenditure of central government, respectively
have shown growth rates of 21.9 per cent, 4.3 per cent, 17.8 per
cent, 24.7 per cent, and 8.5 per cent, during Q2 of 2002-03 over
Q2 of 2001-02.
Estimates at current
prices
GDP at factor
cost at current prices in Q2 of 2002-03 is estimated at Rs. 5,04,563
crore, as against Rs. 4,63,367 crore in Q2, 2001-02, showing a
rise of 8.9 per cent.
The wholesale
price index (WPI) in respect of the groups, food articles, logs
and timber, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity,
and all commodities, has risen by 2.6 per cent, zero per cent,
6.0 per cent, 1.2 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 8.9 per cent and 3.2
percent, respectively during Q2 of 2002-03 over Q2 of 2001-02.
The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown
a rise of 4.0 per cent during Q2 of 2002-03 over Q2 of 2001-02.
Estimates of
GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity,
for Q2 of 2002-03 and the corresponding period in 2001-02 at constant
(1993-94) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 and 2.
The next release of
quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter October-December, 2002
(Q3 of 2002-03) will be on 31.03.2003.
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2002-03
(at 1993-94 prices)
|
industry
|
(Rs. in
crore)
Gross Domestic
Product
|
Percentage
change
over previous
year
|
|
2000-01
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry,
& fishing
|
70779
|
51821
|
71561
|
55066
|
74731
|
55061
|
1.1
|
6.3
|
4.4
|
0.0
|
|
2. mining & quarrying
|
6571
|
6582
|
6554
|
6627
|
6900
|
6963
|
-0.3
|
0.7
|
5.3
|
5.1
|
|
3. manufacturing
|
49706
|
49989
|
51042
|
51291
|
52960
|
54588
|
2.7
|
2.6
|
3.8
|
6.4
|
|
4. electricity, gas &
water supply
|
7481
|
7510
|
7771
|
7914
|
8182
|
8300
|
3.9
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
4.9
|
|
5. construction
|
15837
|
15216
|
15813
|
15621
|
16814
|
16751
|
-0.2
|
2.7
|
6.3
|
7.2
|
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
& commn.
|
63535
|
62142
|
66425
|
66032
|
71367
|
71302
|
4.5
|
6.3
|
7.4
|
8.0
|
|
7. financing, ins., real
est. & bus. services
|
35977
|
36467
|
38480
|
39249
|
42212
|
42744
|
7.0
|
7.6
|
9.7
|
8.9
|
|
8. community, social &
personal services
|
34405
|
38227
|
36652
|
40284
|
38737
|
42600
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
|
GDP at factor cost
|
284292
|
267954
|
294300
|
282084
|
311904
|
298308
|
3.5
|
5.3
|
6.0
|
5.8
|
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2002-03
(at current prices)
|
industry
|
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic
Product
|
Percentage change
over previous
year
|
|
2000-01
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
2001-02
|
2002-03
|
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
|
1. agriculture, forestry &
fishing
|
116796
|
84629
|
120075
|
93070
|
128144
|
95673
|
2.8
|
10.0
|
6.7
|
2.8
|
|
2. mining & quarrying
|
9869
|
10731
|
10889
|
11063
|
11524
|
11767
|
10.3
|
3.1
|
5.8
|
6.4
|
|
3. manufacturing
|
71221
|
72536
|
75831
|
76466
|
79570
|
83319
|
6.5
|
5.4
|
4.9
|
9.0
|
|
4. electricity, gas & water
supply
|
11654
|
11969
|
13495
|
14164
|
15346
|
16168
|
15.8
|
18.3
|
13.7
|
14.2
|
|
5. construction
|
28674
|
27851
|
30190
|
30041
|
32686
|
33250
|
5.3
|
7.9
|
8.3
|
10.7
|
|
6. trade, hotels, transport
& commn.
|
93288
|
92169
|
102367
|
102397
|
111498
|
113472
|
9.7
|
11.1
|
8.9
|
10.8
|
|
7. financing, ins., real est.
& bus.
services
|
55516
|
56843
|
62643
|
64287
|
69888
|
72205
|
12.8
|
13.1
|
11.6
|
12.3
|
|
8. community, social &
personal
services
|
57922
|
65035
|
64376
|
71879
|
69947
|
78709
|
11.1
|
10.5
|
8.7
|
9.5
|
|
GDP at factor cost
|
444939
|
421763
|
479868
|
463367
|
518604
|
504563
|
7.9
|
9.9
|
8.1
|
8.9
|
Q1: April-June; Q2: July-September
